Jason Millar’s investor’s guide to Italian wines

The last few years haven’t been much fun for wine investors, but the market is stabilising and Italy has been the one region that held its ground even as everything else slipped. Over a decade, Italian fine wine is up roughly 60% compared with Bordeaux’s 15–20%.

That alone should reset expectations. Anyone who entered the market in 2022, right at the post-Covid peak, may feel disillusioned, especially after the more fanciful claims made by some in the investment space. But wine investment only makes sense over ten-year horizons. Viewed that way, Italy looks exceptional, even when set against fashionable regions like Burgundy. Since the 2022 peak, Liv-ex’s Burgundy 150 has fallen 33.7% compared with the Italy 100’s decline of 14%.

The Liv-ex Italy 100, which tracks the most recent physical vintages from the core Super Tuscans and a handful of other leading producers, makes the trend clear. Tuscany has carried Italy’s performance and accounts for more than two-thirds of trades. Piedmont, despite the “new Burgundy” narrative, has not shown the same resilience since 2022. The real tradeable value sits with the non-DOC/G labels — the Super Tuscans — rather than the classic DOCGs of Barolo, Barbaresco or Brunello

Liv-ex data shows that 85% of Italian fine-wine investment still comes from Tuscany and Piedmont and from an unusually narrow set of producers. The remaining 15% is where the shift is happening. Abruzzo, Umbria and Veneto have all grown sharply at lower price points. They don’t make it into the Italy 100 and therefore don’t appear in the headline index, yet they are attracting buyers quickly enough to signal a genuine broadening of the Italian market.

For investors, the message is simple: stay the course and stay rational. The last three years have been the steepest and longest correction in modern fine-wine history, but short-term volatility tells you nothing about long-term value. Anyone who bought 2015 or 2016 Italian icons is sitting on very strong gains, and nothing about the structural case for Italian fine wine has changed.

For drinkers, Italy has never been more dynamic. Improvements in viticulture and winemaking across the country mean that serious, age worthy wines are no longer confined to Bolgheri or Barolo. Quality now runs from Sardinia across to Collio and from Valle d’Aosta down to Calabria. There is character, longevity and regional identity everywhere you look, along with relative bargains (see below).

Collectors will always hunt the unicorns, but whatever you buy, storage and provenance remain non-negotiable. Poorly kept wine is almost impossible to sell at the top of the market; perfect condition and verifiable provenance are now expected.

Only a fraction of Italy’s serious wines appear in the fine-wine indices. The visible tip may get the attention, but the weight of Italy’s quality lies beneath the surface, and more of it emerges every year. That is healthy for Italy, welcome relief for investors weary of Burgundy and Bordeaux’s pricing, and ultimately good for the wider wine market. Despite broader market weakness, Italy remains a smart choice for wine investors.

Jason Millar is a former wine merchant and buyer. He is now an independent wine writer, judge and consultant specialising in Italy and South Africa.

Gaja
Tignanello (Antinori)
Sassicaia (Tenuta San Guido)
Solaia (Antinori)
Ornellaia (Antinori)
Masseto (Antinori)
Giacomo Conterno Barolo Monfortino Riserva
Bruno Giacosa Barolo/Barbaresco (Rocche di Falletto Riserva)

Soldera Case Basse
Saffredi (Castello dei Rampolla)
L’Apparita (Castello di Ama)
Cepparello (Isole e Olena)
Testamatta (Bibi Graetz)
Vietti Barolo (Ravera, Rocche etc)
Produttori del Barbaresco Riservas
Quintarelli Amarone
Dal Forno Amarone
Valentini (Trebbiano d’Abruzzo, Montepulciano d’Abruzzo)
Emidio Pepe (Trebbiano d’Abruzzo, Montepulciano d’Abruzzo)

Etna Rosso (Tenuta delle Terre Nere, Graci, Cornelissen Magma)
Valtellina (Ar.Pe.Pe)
Sagrantino di Montefalco (Arnaldo Caprai 25 Anni, Paolo Bea Pagliaro)
Taurasi (Mastroberardino Radici Riserva)
Friuli (Miani, Borgo del Tiglio)

Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco
Il Poggione Brunello
Castelgiocondo Brunello
Marchese Antinori Chianti Classico Riserva
Bramito della Sala (Antinori)