No, I Am Not Fine

Despite early signs of recovery — an uptick in prices, the return of bids, the narrowing of spreads — this brief spike of activity (what doctors call a “terminal surge” in those about to die) does not mean the underlying condition of the wine industry has improved.

Look closer and it is clear that, structurally, the sector is under pressure from every angle: demand is weak and uncertain; costs are rising and credit is tightening. Meanwhile, key growth markets — Russia, China and parts of the GCC — are either weakened or unstable. Most importantly, prices no longer align with what the market is willing — or able — to pay. Add to this the generational shift towards drinking less, and it is clear the system is under strain.

The recent improvement in Liv-ex, while encouraging, needs to be put into context. Rising bid activity and tighter spreads are being interpreted as a return of confidence. But there is another, more mechanical explanation: inventory. After three years of destocking, many merchants and distributors simply need to buy again. That is not the same as renewed conviction. It is restocking.

At the same time, conditions on the ground remain difficult. In the UK, hospitality — which accounts for a significant share of wine consumption — continues to operate under intense pressure from rising costs and weak consumer demand. This feeds directly into the fine wine market: fewer lists, tighter buying and a slower turnover.

The financial side of the trade tells a similar story. A number of well-known merchants have reported losses, while others face increasing scrutiny over their balance sheets and funding structures. Access to cheap credit — long a quiet pillar of the wine trade — is no longer a given. As one merchant put it to me recently: “This isn’t a consumer crisis. It’s a debt crisis.”

The collapse of the Oeno Group last year brought this into sharp focus. It was easy for the industry to dismiss it as an isolated case but it’s crucial to understand that it wasn’t.

More importantly, it highlighted something many collectors overlook: how their wine is held. When wine is stored under a merchant’s name, clients can be exposed if that business fails. By contrast, custodial bonded storage — where the wine is held in the client’s own name — ringfences ownership. It is a structural difference, not a technicality, and in stressed environments, it becomes critical.

If that is the diagnosis, where does it leave us?

Paradoxically, moments like this often create the most interesting opportunities — particularly in the secondary market. When new releases are priced above comparable back vintages, the value shifts decisively to what already exists. We are seeing this clearly in Bordeaux: in many cases, mature vintages are available at a discount to current releases, without the wait or the risk.

This is where buyers matter.

Markets are not abstract forces; they are shaped by the behaviour of buyers and sellers. And right now, disciplined buyers — those with a long-term perspective, access to liquidity, and properly stored stock — are in a position of strength. They are not forced sellers, they can be selective and can set the tone.

There is also a more subtle shift taking place. As speculative capital becomes scarcer and easy financing disappears, the market naturally tilts back towards collectors rather than short-term investors. That may feel uncomfortable in the short run, but it is arguably healthier in the long term.

None of this suggests the industry is “fine.” It isn’t. The adjustment is real, and it may take time.

What we are seeing is a reset: of pricing, of expectations, and of who holds power in the market. And in that reset, informed buyers — not momentum — are likely to shape what comes next.

Sara Danese covers fine wine with an investor’s eye. She’s worked as an investment analyst at Russell Investments and AXA Investment Managers, and later built a wine trading business focused on China, powered by social media. She now curates In the Mood for Wine, a weekly publication for modern collectors exploring wine investment.